TLDR: Joseph Briggs of Goldman Sachs projects that generative artificial intelligence could elevate U.S. labor productivity by 15% within the next ten years, a significant economic shift driven by automation and new job creation.
Goldman Sachs’ senior global economist, Joseph Briggs, recently articulated a compelling vision for the future of the U.S. economy, predicting that generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to increase U.S. labor productivity by a substantial 15% over the next decade. This forecast, reiterated in a CNBC Television appearance on November 1, 2025, underscores the transformative impact AI is expected to have on various sectors.
The projection stems from extensive research conducted by Goldman Sachs economists, including Briggs and Devesh Kodnani, who have been analyzing the macroeconomic effects of generative AI. Their earlier reports, dating back to March and April 2023, highlighted that generative AI could raise annual U.S. labor productivity growth by just under 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period following widespread business adoption. This increase is anticipated to double the long-term Congressional Budget Office forecast for U.S. productivity, potentially ushering in a 3% economy, a level not seen consistently since the late 1990s and early 2000s.
Beyond productivity, the research suggests a profound impact on global GDP, with generative AI potentially adding 7% (or nearly $7 trillion) to annual global GDP over the same ten-year timeframe. This economic uplift is driven by a combination of significant labor cost savings, the creation of new jobs, and a boost in productivity for workers whose roles are complemented rather than replaced by AI.
While the long-term outlook is optimistic, Goldman Sachs acknowledges the disruptive nature of this technological shift on the labor market. Economists Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong noted in an August 2025 report that widespread AI adoption could displace 6-7% of the U.S. workforce. However, they remain “skeptical that AI… will lead to a permanent ‘jobpocalypse’,” anticipating that job losses will be brief. The report identifies certain roles with higher near-term exposure to automation, such as programmers, accountants, legal/admin assistants, and customer support, while roles like air-traffic controllers, radiologists, and CEOs are expected to have lower exposure. Historically, new jobs created by technological innovations have offset those displaced by automation, accounting for the majority of long-run employment growth.
Despite the significant investment boom in generative AI, its measurable impact on overall productivity has yet to fully materialize. Joseph Briggs explained in May 2024 that while the potential for AI to automate tasks and generate large productivity gains is evident, adoption rates are still relatively limited. “Until we’ve seen more significant uptake in the actual application of AI, in the regular work production process, I don’t think that we’re going to see as big of an impact on productivity,” Briggs stated. Nevertheless, he added, “the early signals of future productivity gains look very, very positive,” citing academic literature and case studies showing average productivity increases of about 25% following AI adoption. Goldman Sachs Research expects AI to begin having a measurable impact on U.S. GDP around 2027, with effects filtering into other global economies in subsequent years.
The firm emphasizes that generative AI’s ability to produce human-like content and bridge communication gaps between humans and machines represents a major advancement with substantial macroeconomic implications. This technology is streamlining business workflows, automating routine tasks, and fostering new business applications, from improving knowledge worker efficiency to accelerating drug discovery and software development.
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This detailed report synthesizes the latest projections and underlying research from Goldman Sachs, painting a picture of a future where generative AI acts as a powerful catalyst for economic growth and productivity, albeit with a transitional period of labor market adjustments.
