TLDR: A recent report from Forrester reveals that the European Union’s aspirations for digital sovereignty, particularly a full transition away from dominant US cloud providers, are unlikely to be achieved by 2026. The report highlights ongoing reliance on US hyperscalers due to practical limitations, despite intensified efforts by the EU to gain greater control over its technology stack. While consumer adoption of generative AI is projected to double, enterprise AI integration in Europe is expected to trail the US, influenced by stricter regulations and less developed capabilities.
London, October 13, 2025 – A new report from Forrester, unveiled at its Technology & Innovation Summit EMEA, casts a pragmatic light on the European Union’s ambitious digital sovereignty objectives, predicting that a complete disentanglement from US cloud hyperscalers by 2026 is unrealistic. The ‘Forrester’s 2026 European Predictions’ report emphasizes that despite growing interest in digital sovereignty and increasing concerns over US cloud providers like AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure, a full shift to local suppliers remains impractical in the short to medium term.
According to Forrester, geopolitical tensions, persistent volatility, and the impact of new legislative acts such as the European Green Deal and the EU AI Act will continue to influence European firms. These factors are expected to hinder widespread experimentation with high-risk use cases, thereby reinforcing a continued reliance on US hyperscalers.
While some specific industries may initiate migrations for niche applications, the overall impact on the European cloud market is anticipated to be negligible. Similarly, the report foresees no significant large-scale migration to Linux desktops or open-source productivity and collaboration tools, primarily due to a perceived lack of enterprise-grade, fully supported offerings.
Forrester Senior Analyst Dario Maisto underscored that truly sovereign cloud IT infrastructure is still several years away and could incur costs 15% to 30% higher than standard public cloud contracts. Maisto also pointed out that genuine data sovereignty is often not a strict requirement, and hyperscalers cannot guarantee data residency due to their inherent cloud architecture.
In terms of artificial intelligence, the report predicts a doubling of consumers’ daily use of generative AI in most European countries by 2026. However, enterprise adoption of AI in Europe is expected to lag behind the United States. This disparity is attributed to tighter EU regulations and less mature AI capabilities within European firms. The United Kingdom is noted as a potential exception, possibly bucking these trends due to its lighter regulatory environment and fewer language barriers.
Other key predictions include a 20% uplift in technology budgets for EU critical infrastructure operators, driven by increased defense spending. Conversely, the UK’s AI strategy, characterized by partnerships with US AI tech companies and a reluctance to implement binding AI regulation, is projected to erode public trust in the government.
Dane Anderson, SVP, International Research & Product at Forrester, commented, “The European Union is making a concerted effort to become more competitive and reduce its dependence on global tech infrastructure. However, the reality is that ongoing volatility and operational constraints will compel European businesses to pursue more pragmatic strategies in both the long and short term.”
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The report advises European leaders to re-evaluate their cloud strategies and aim for a level of sovereignty that is feasible, desirable, viable, and affordable amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
