TLDR: Salesforce forecasts a record $1.25 trillion in global digital holiday sales for November and December 2025, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and agent-driven shopping journeys expected to contribute a significant $263 billion, or 21% of total orders. AI-assisted traffic has seen a 119% year-over-year surge, demonstrating significantly higher conversion rates compared to traditional channels. Consumer trust in AI recommendations has also risen sharply.
Salesforce’s latest projections indicate a robust 2025 holiday shopping season, with global digital sales anticipated to reach an unprecedented $1.25 trillion during November and December, marking a 4% year-over-year increase. A substantial portion of this growth is attributed to the accelerating integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and agent-driven shopping experiences, which are forecast to generate $263 billion in global holiday orders, accounting for 21% of total sales.
The analysis, drawing from data across 1.5 billion global shoppers utilizing Salesforce’s Commerce Cloud, Marketing Cloud, Service Cloud, and Agentforce platforms, highlights the transformative impact of AI on consumer behavior. AI-assisted traffic experienced a remarkable 119% year-over-year surge in the first half of 2025. Furthermore, conversion rates from these AI-driven channels were more than 700% higher than social media traffic and 200% higher than traditional channels like search and direct interactions.
Consumer confidence in AI recommendations has also seen a significant boost, with 86% of users now trusting AI suggestions, a substantial increase from 46% in May. This growing trust underscores the rapid adoption and effectiveness of AI tools, such as ChatGPT, in the shopping journey.
In the United States, digital sales are projected to reach $288 billion, representing a 2% increase. Beyond AI’s influence, other key trends are expected to shape the holiday season. The resale market is poised for considerable growth, with an estimated $64 billion in sales, as 46% of consumers plan to gift a pre-owned item, primarily driven by cost-saving motivations. Macroeconomic pressures are also influencing purchasing patterns, with 77% of consumers expected to delay significant purchases until Cyber Week discounts.
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Interestingly, digitally native Gen Z shoppers are increasingly turning to in-store experiences. Three out of four Gen Z consumers plan to shop in physical stores this season, particularly during peak events like Black Friday, and are projected to spend three times more in-store for every dollar spent online. Retailers, in response to rising supply chain costs, are expected to scale back promotions, with a 2% reduction in e-commerce orders placed using promotional codes.
