TLDR: Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that the U.S. economy is poised for accelerated GDP growth, potentially reaching 2.1% to 2.3%, primarily fueled by significant advancements and adoption of artificial intelligence. This surge in AI is expected to boost productivity growth well above pre-pandemic levels, with the firm’s CEO, David Solomon, highlighting AI as a “super tailwind” for economic expansion into 2026.
Goldman Sachs economists are projecting a notable acceleration in U.S. potential GDP growth, anticipating rates of at least 2.1% to 2.3% in the coming years, largely attributed to the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity. This optimistic outlook suggests a significant shift from pre-pandemic trends.
According to recent research from Goldman Sachs, AI is expected to drive productivity growth to an average of 1.7% through the end of 2029, further accelerating to 1.9% in the early 2030s. This represents a substantial increase compared to the average labor productivity growth of 1.2% per year observed before the pandemic. Manuel Abecasis, a Goldman analyst, noted that economy-wide labor productivity has already risen about 1.6% per year since 2019, exceeding the pre-pandemic average, partly due to elevated immigration boosting labor force growth. As a result, potential GDP growth is estimated to have increased from approximately 1.8% pre-pandemic to around 2.4% in recent years.
Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs analysts had estimated that generative AI could boost global GDP by a staggering 7%, or about $7 trillion, by lifting productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over the next decade. They also calculated that AI has already added $160 billion to what they term “true GDP,” encompassing enterprise software adoption, productivity gains, capital expenditure toward AI infrastructure, and private-sector AI investments often excluded from traditional metrics.
David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs Group, echoed this positive sentiment in a recent interview, predicting that the U.S. economy would continue to accelerate into 2026. Solomon identified ongoing monetary and fiscal stimulus measures, alongside a “super tailwind” from large-scale technology spending led by AI, as key drivers. He emphasized that these factors would comprehensively outweigh any negative impacts from a relatively weaker non-farm labor market or geopolitical turbulence. Solomon also revealed Goldman Sachs’ own commitment to this technological shift, stating the firm plans to spend $60 billion on transformative technologies like AI to enhance employee productivity and operational efficiency.
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While the forecast is largely positive, economists caution that the full realization of these gains is contingent on continued investment in AI infrastructure and talent. Potential risks, such as slower AI adoption, population growth, or scientific progress, could hinder the anticipated acceleration. Nevertheless, the consensus from Goldman Sachs points to AI as a pivotal force in shaping a more robust economic future for the U.S. over the next decade.
