TLDR: Industry analysts, including Counterpoint Research and IDC, forecast a substantial increase in generative AI-powered smartphone System-on-Chips (SoCs) in 2025. Counterpoint predicts a 74% year-on-year rise, with GenAI SoCs accounting for 35% of all smartphone SoC shipments. Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are expected to lead the market, leveraging advanced on-device AI capabilities. IDC further projects GenAI smartphones to dominate 70% of the market by 2028, transforming user interaction and driving upgrades.
Industry analysts are forecasting a significant surge in generative AI (GenAI)-compatible smartphone System-on-Chip (SoC) shipments, with Counterpoint Research predicting a 74% year-on-year increase in 2025. This growth is attributed to the increasing integration of GenAI capabilities into mobile devices, which is expected to drive market penetration across all smartphone tiers, particularly in premium models. Counterpoint Research anticipates that GenAI equivalents will constitute 35% of all smartphone SoCs shipped this year.
Leading the charge in GenAI smartphone SoC shipments, Counterpoint Research projects Apple to capture a 46% market share, followed by Qualcomm with 35%, and MediaTek with 12%. Apple’s strategy includes collaborations with OpenAI to embed ChatGPT into various devices, alongside the development of its own generative models, such as a 3-billion parameter on-device language model and a larger server-based version. Qualcomm is advancing with its AI Orchestrator tool, designed to assist OEMs in focusing on services by simplifying the management of complex large language models (LLMs), hardware, and software. MediaTek is also contributing to this ecosystem by offering a tool that optimizes AI performance across CPUs, GPUs, and NPUs.
Research analyst Shivani Parashar from Counterpoint Research highlighted the rapid advancement in AI performance, stating that peak AI performance in premium-tier smartphones is expected to reach 100 Tera Operations Per Second (TOPS) this year, which is nearly four times higher than in 2021.
Further reinforcing these projections, the International Data Corporation (IDC) forecasts a dramatic transformation in the smartphone industry. IDC defines GenAI smartphones as devices featuring an SoC capable of running on-device GenAI models more quickly and efficiently, utilizing a neural processing unit (NPU) with 30 TOPS or more performance using the int-8 data type.
According to IDC’s July 2024 forecast, worldwide GenAI smartphone shipments were expected to grow 363.6% year-over-year in 2024, reaching 234.2 million units and representing 19% of the overall smartphone market. This dramatic growth is projected to continue into 2025, with shipments of GenAI smartphones expected to grow 73.1% year-over-year. By 2028, IDC forecasts 912 million GenAI smartphone shipments, achieving a 2024-2028 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78.4%.
Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, emphasized the unprecedented speed of GenAI’s integration into smartphones, anticipating market penetration to exceed 60% within the first three years. He noted that the most significant impact is expected in 2026, as mid-range devices adopt this technology, leading to the ‘democratization of GenAI.’ IDC’s August 2025 forecast further predicts over 370 million GenAI smartphones to be shipped globally in 2025, contributing to a 30% market share, with this share potentially exceeding 70% by 2029 as use cases expand and consumer education increases.
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Despite overall unit growth in the smartphone market remaining soft at 1% for 2025, the market is expected to see robust 5% year-on-year growth in Average Selling Price (ASP) and 6% growth in value this year. This trend indicates a strategic focus by vendors on value growth rather than solely chasing volume share. OEMs are continuing to invest in innovative technologies such as slimmer designs, foldable form factors, and advanced camera features, alongside GenAI, to stimulate consumer interest and justify the ongoing premiumization trend.
