TLDR: Generative AI tools have significantly impacted the programming job market, leading to a 26% decline in US computer programming employment between 2022 and 2024. This acceleration in job losses, five times faster than pre-AI trends, is attributed to AI’s ability to automate routine coding tasks. While some experts predict a shift towards higher-skilled, AI-complementary roles, others warn of broader disruptions across various tech sectors, particularly for entry-level positions.
The advent of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) has ushered in a transformative era for the tech industry, with programmers experiencing a notable and accelerated impact on their employment. Between 2022 and 2024, computer programming employment in the US saw a significant drop of over 26%. This decline coincides directly with the rise of GenAI tools, such as ChatGPT, which are capable of generating basic code on demand. The pace of this downturn is particularly striking, with programmer employment now falling at an annual rate of 14.3%, more than five times faster than the pre-2022 trend, which had already seen a gradual decline since 2017.
While some macroeconomic factors, including rising interest rates and a shift towards efficiency, have contributed to a general slowdown in IT employment growth (from 4.6% annually before 2022 to 1.4% since), analysts suggest that GenAI is a distinct and accelerating force. High-skill positions, such as information security analysts and database architects, continue to see demand, indicating that job losses are not purely economic but are concentrated in roles highly exposed to AI automation.
GenAI’s impact on programming stems from its ability to handle core tasks like writing boilerplate code, debugging simple functions, and scaffolding basic applications. This automation means that tasks previously requiring a team of junior coders can now be managed by a single experienced engineer leveraging AI assistants. This trend serves as an early warning for other tech roles involving codified, repeatable tasks, including web development, design, support, and system administration.
Experts offer varied perspectives on the long-term outlook. Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, predicts that within a year, most programming work will be performed by AI, noting that AI models excel in structured languages like mathematics. Geoffrey Hinton, often called the ‘godfather of AI,’ warns that AI will increase unemployment while boosting profits, attributing this to capitalism rather than the technology itself, and highlights a reduction in entry-level opportunities. A Stanford study from August 2025 indicates that early-career employees in AI-exposed fields have experienced a 13% drop in employment since 2022, with entry-level software engineering and customer service roles declining by roughly 20% between late 2022 and July 2025. In contrast, employment for older workers in the same jobs grew by 6% to 9% during the same period.
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However, not all predictions are dire. Gartner, Inc. projects that by 2027, GenAI will create new roles in software engineering and operations, necessitating that 80% of engineers upskill. Tech leaders like Bill Gates and Andrew Ng, an AI and machine learning pioneer, argue that AI will enhance, rather than replace, coders. Ng states, ‘As these tools continue to make coding easier, this is the best time yet to learn to code.’ Gates believes developers will always be needed to debug, refine, and improve AI models, and that coders who maintain and guide AI systems will increase in value. The ‘Future of Jobs Report 2025’ also identifies technology-related roles, including AI and Machine Learning Specialists and Software and Application Developers, as the fastest-growing jobs. Worldmetrics, in its 2024 Market Data Report, even projected that AI would create 540,000 software engineering jobs in 2025. This suggests a future where adaptability and specialized expertise, particularly in human decision-making, reasoning, and creativity, will be paramount, requiring over 40% of workers to significantly upskill by 2030.
