TLDR: Adobe predicts an unprecedented 3,200% year-over-year increase in generative AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail websites during Amazon’s Prime Day event, running from July 8-11. This surge underscores AI’s growing influence in online shopping, with consumers leveraging it for product research, recommendations, and deal discovery. Overall U.S. online spending is projected to reach a record $23.8 billion, a 28.4% increase from last year, equivalent to two 2024 Black Fridays.
Adobe Analytics forecasts a monumental 3,200% year-over-year surge in generative AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail websites during Amazon’s Prime Day event, which commenced on July 8 and runs through July 11. This projection highlights the rapidly expanding role of artificial intelligence in shaping consumer online shopping behaviors.
According to Adobe’s comprehensive analysis, which monitors over 1 trillion visits to retail sites and tracks 100 million products, the overall U.S. online spending during this four-day sales extravaganza is expected to hit a record $23.8 billion. This represents a substantial 28.4% increase compared to last year’s Prime Day figures and is projected to generate sales equivalent to two 2024 Black Fridays, which saw $10.8 billion in e-commerce sales.
The significant uptick in AI-driven traffic, while still modest compared to established channels like paid search or email, demonstrates the tangible value consumers are finding in leveraging AI tools. Vivek Pandya, director, Adobe Digital Insights at Adobe, stated, ‘And while AI-driven traffic remains modest compared to other channels such as paid search or email, the growth shows the value consumers are seeing in leveraging AI to quickly find information on deals and product details.’
This trend follows a notable surge observed during the 2024 holiday shopping season (November 1 to December 31), when generative AI traffic to U.S. retail sites increased by 1,300% year-over-year. A recent survey conducted by Adobe involving 5,000 U.S. consumers further illuminates this shift, revealing that 92% of generative AI users felt the technology enhanced their shopping experience. Key uses of generative AI identified in the survey include conducting research (55%), receiving product recommendations (47%), seeking deals (43%), getting present ideas (35%), finding unique products (35%), and creating shopping lists (33%). Furthermore, 87% of users expressed a greater inclination to use AI for big-ticket purchases.
Mobile shopping is also set to reach an all-time high during Prime Day 2025, projected to drive 52.5% of all U.S. online sales, amounting to approximately $12.5 billion. Additionally, the use of ‘buy now, pay later’ (BNPL) services is expected to see a slight increase, with its share of overall online spend rising from 7.6% last year to 8% this year, as budget-conscious consumers seek flexible payment options.
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Retailers are expected to offer discounts ranging from 10% to 24% off listed prices, with apparel and back-to-school categories anticipated to feature the deepest discounts. Major tech companies like Google, with its Gemini AI integration into product searches, and OpenAI, with shopping features in ChatGPT, are actively contributing to this AI-driven shopping evolution. Amazon’s own Prime Day in 2024 set a U.S. sales record of $14.2 billion, an 11% increase, with over 200 million Prime members participating globally.
