TLDR: A research paper titled “The Paradox of Doom: Acknowledging Extinction Risk Reduces the Incentive to Prevent It” by Jakub Growiec and Klaus Prettner explores how the risk of human extinction increases societal impatience, thereby reducing the motivation to invest in preventing it. Unlike individual mortality, which can be hedged through reproduction, human extinction is an unhedgeable aggregate risk. The study finds that a heightened awareness of extinction risk leads to a higher discount rate, making long-term investments in areas like climate change mitigation, pandemic prevention, and AI safety less attractive. This creates a paradoxical cycle where the greater the threat, the weaker the incentives to address it, explaining persistent underinvestment in catastrophic risk mitigation.
A new research paper delves into a fascinating and concerning aspect of human behavior: how the threat of human extinction might paradoxically reduce our motivation to prevent it. Titled “The Paradox of Doom: Acknowledging Extinction Risk Reduces the Incentive to Prevent It,” the study explores the intricate link between the prospect of humanity’s end and our collective impatience.
The authors, Jakub Growiec and Klaus Prettner, investigate how the risk of human extinction influences what economists call the ‘discount rate’ – essentially, how much we value future outcomes compared to present ones. A higher discount rate means we are more impatient, preferring immediate gratification over long-term benefits.
The paper distinguishes between two types of mortality risk: individual mortality (the certainty that each person will eventually die) and aggregate extinction risk (the possibility that all of humanity could perish). While individual death is a constant, the study finds that its impact on our long-term planning can be mitigated through human reproduction and intergenerational altruism. The idea is that even if we die, our legacy and genes continue through our descendants, providing a form of ‘hedging’ against individual mortality.
However, the risk of human extinction is fundamentally different. It’s an aggregate risk that cannot be hedged against through reproduction. If humanity ceases to exist, there are no future generations to carry on. The research reveals that this unhedgeable nature of extinction risk makes it a powerful driver of impatience. When people acknowledge or update their beliefs about a higher risk of human extinction, they tend to become more present-focused.
This leads to the central paradox: the greater the perceived threat of extinction, the less incentive there is to invest in avoiding it. If we become more impatient, long-term projects aimed at mitigating catastrophic risks – such as climate change, future pandemics, or the emerging dangers of transformative artificial intelligence – appear less attractive. The benefits of these investments are far in the future, and a more impatient society is less willing to sacrifice present resources for uncertain future gains.
The authors suggest this mechanism helps explain why humanity consistently underinvests in preventing catastrophic risks. It’s not just that these risks are often dismissed as speculative due to a lack of historical precedent; even when acknowledged, they can trigger a psychological response that makes us less likely to act. This creates a destabilizing feedback loop: increased extinction risk leads to greater impatience, which in turn makes it harder to return to a sustainable path.
The study’s findings have significant implications for policymakers and society. It highlights the need for institutional frameworks that can embed greater farsightedness into collective decision-making. Examples include internationally binding carbon pricing schemes, global coordination on AI safety, and robust treaties on limiting biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons. Such measures could help counteract the inherent human tendency towards short-termism when faced with the ultimate long-term threat.
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For a deeper dive into this critical research, you can read the full paper here.
